Vietnam’s merchandise trade exceeded US$1 trillion in January–October 2026, reflecting its expanding role in global manufacturing and supply chains. Preliminary figures show exports of US$499.24 billion and imports of US$511.31 billion, leaving a US$12.07 billion deficit.
For foreign investors, the opportunity extends beyond rising trade volumes. Supplier capabilities, reliance on imported inputs and product-specific market-access requirements will influence where businesses invest and how competitively they operate.
For foreign investors, this creates an important distinction between rules that were introduced but are currently suspended and requirements that businesses must follow today.
This guide explains the current status of Decree 46/2026, the key changes introduced under the suspended framework, and what food manufacturers, importers and distributors should consider while the amended Law on Food Safety is being developed.
What Do the Latest Trade Figures Show?
| Indicator | January - October 2026 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Total merchandise trade | US$1,010.55 billion | +32.3% |
| Exports | US$499.24 billion | +27.5% |
| Imports | US$511.31 billion | +37.4% |
| Trade balance | US$12.07 billion deficit | - |
Imports grew faster than exports over the period, despite a US$7.31 billion surplus in October.
Trade turnover measures cross-border transactions. It does not directly show the value retained in Vietnam through local sourcing, employment or technology development. Investors should assess these factors at the industry and company level.
Where Are the Manufacturing and Supplier Opportunities?
Foreign-invested enterprises accounted for 81.2% of exports, while processed industrial goods represented 90.7% of export value. This concentration highlights the importance of international manufacturers to Vietnam’s trade performance.
For suppliers and service providers, potential opportunities include components, industrial services, logistics and production support. Securing business requires evidence that suppliers can meet buyers’ expectations for quality, delivery, traceability and technical capability.
Export growth alone does not establish demand for a particular supplier. Investors should assess purchasing requirements, qualification procedures and existing competition before committing resources.
How Does Import Dependence Affect Operations?
Production goods accounted for 94.1% of imports, covering machinery, equipment, raw materials and other production inputs.
These imports can support investment, factory expansion and future exports. They also expose manufacturers to overseas supply disruption, currency movements and changes in input costs.
Vietnam’s trade balances illustrate its position within regional production networks:
| Trading Partner | January - October 2026 |
|---|---|
| United States | US$140.10 billion surplus |
| European Union | US$40.84 billion surplus |
| Japan | US$3.42 billion surplus |
| China | US$134.94 billion deficit |
| South Korea | US$48.63 billion deficit |
| ASEAN | US$16.93 billion deficit |
Businesses should map critical inputs, assess supplier concentration and review alternative sourcing and logistics arrangements. Strong demand in an export market does not protect production from disruption elsewhere in the supply chain.
What Does FDI Growth Tell Investors?
As of 31 October 2026, registered foreign investment reached US$54.85 billion, up 74.0% year on year. Implemented FDI reached an estimated US$24.08 billion over the first ten months, up 13.1%.
The distinction matters when assessing future capacity. Registered investment includes new projects, adjustments and capital contributions or share purchases. Implemented investment may relate to projects registered in earlier periods.
For location, sourcing and expansion decisions, investors should examine construction progress, equipment installation, utilities, recruitment and commissioning schedules. These provide a clearer view of when announced investment may translate into operating capacity.
How Should Exporters Assess Tariffs and FTA Benefits?
Market access requires a product-specific review of tariff classification, origin and documentation.
Free Trade Agreement Preferences
Preferential tariffs are not automatic. Exporters should compare the agreements available for each destination, confirm product-specific origin requirements and weigh potential savings against compliance costs.
Reported FTA utilisation rates can indicate scope for review, but they do not establish that every shipment outside a preferential claim is missing an available benefit.
US Tariffs and Vietnamese Origin
US Customs and Border Protection guidance sets out a 12.5% additional Section 301 duty on covered products of Vietnam from 24 July 2026, with specified exemptions.
That additional duty is not necessarily the total payable. Ordinary customs duties and other applicable measures must also be checked against the product’s US tariff classification.
Shipping or assembling goods in Vietnam does not automatically establish Vietnamese origin. Where the substantial transformation test applies, the assessment considers whether manufacturing creates a product with a new name, character or use. A general local-content percentage does not guarantee qualification.
Exporters should maintain sourcing records, bills of materials and manufacturing-process documentation. Where origin treatment is uncertain, a CBP ruling can help clarify the position before shipment.
What Should Foreign Investors Prioritise?
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The trade milestone provides context for investment decisions. Practical reviews should focus on:
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Supplier readiness. Validate production capacity, quality systems and buyer qualification requirements.
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Sourcing resilience. Identify critical dependencies and assess alternative suppliers, routes and inventory needs.
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Actual project progress. Check operating milestones before relying on announced manufacturing capacity.
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Market-access costs. Confirm tariffs, origin treatment and available FTA preferences by product and destination.
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Commercial demand. Test opportunities for local components and services against customer needs and competition.
How Ascentium Vietnam Can Help
Ascentium Vietnam helps foreign investors assess market demand, compare locations and evaluate suppliers. Our team can also support the corporate, tax and workforce planning needed to establish or expand operations.
Assess Your Next Investment in Vietnam
Discuss supplier readiness, location options and market demand with our Vietnam Business Intelligence team.
Frequently Asked Questions
Preliminary merchandise trade totalled US$1,010.55 billion from January through October.
Eligibility depends on the destination, the applicable agreement and the product-specific origin rules. Exporters should review documentation and tariff classification for each product.
