Key Takeaways
With nearly 87.6 GW of installed power capacity and renewables accounting for about 27.9%, renewable energy in Vietnam has developed into a significant investment market with opportunities across solar, wind and other clean energy segments.
New frameworks such as DPPA under Decree 57/2025, Decree 58 (as amended by Decree 243/2026/ND-CP) on renewable development, and price brackets for solar and wind mean renewable energy projects must compete on fundamentals rather than rely on fixed FIT incentives.
Vietnam’s revised PDP8 targets 183–236 GW of total capacity by 2030, creating continued opportunities across solar, wind, rooftop systems, and corporate renewable energy procurement.
Vietnam's renewable energy market has moved beyond early-stage potential and is entering a more structured investment phase. While the sector has achieved significant scale, investors must still navigate challenges including grid capacity, project execution and regulatory requirements. Recent electricity and renewable energy regulations introduced during 2024–2026, including updates to DPPA and renewable energy frameworks, are creating a clearer pathway for market participation while shaping how projects are developed and financed.
With a population of 101.3 million in 2025 and continued industrial expansion, the “energy-growth” relationship remains central to Vietnam’s development model—while policy has also shifted sharply toward decarbonisation and modernisation.
Market forces and where the system stands now
Vietnam’s national power system has reached “ASEAN scale.” By the end of 2025, total installed capacity (excluding imports) was about 87.6 GW—up roughly 6.4 GW versus 2024. In that mix, renewables (wind, solar, biomass) accounted for ~24.45 GW (27.9%), while coal was ~28.1 GW (32.1%) and hydropower ~24.64 GW (28.1%). In 2025, total electricity production and imports were estimated at ~322.8 billion kWh and peak load reached 54,370 MW (+11.1% YoY).
A major reason renewables remain investable is that they are already “in the system” at meaningful penetration—yet demand growth and regional supply constraints (notably in the North) keep the urgency high. 2025 power output was still stabilised through flexible operations and coordination, including with the National System and Market Operator.
Distributed solar is also large enough to matter. Vietnam Electricity reported that by 2025 its managed grid included 105,876 rooftop solar systems totaling ~10,220.78 MWp, with electricity fed into the grid estimated at ~10.43 billion kWh. The same report notes that additional self-consumption systems exist beyond what EVN purchases, implying the “true” rooftop footprint is larger than purchase records alone.
Grid readiness is improving—but remains the bottleneck that separates “resource potential” from “bankable megawatts.” Vietnam’s rapid solar build-out created operational stress and curtailment concerns, which lenders and developers still treat as a core risk—especially for projects in congested zones.
Vietnam’s revised power plan (approved in 2025) is designed to solve two problems at once: energy security for a fast-growing economy, and a structural shift away from coal over the long term. A Reuters summary of the plan puts total capacity by 2030 at ~183–236 GW (from “over 80 GW” in 2023), with a nationwide investment envelope cited at US$136.3 billion to expand generation capacity and supporting infrastructure.
For renewable investors, the key is not only “more capacity,” but where the plan places pressure and opportunity:
It is also important to understand the “political economy” of revisions. Earlier drafts signaled that offshore wind targets would be delayed relative to earlier ambitions, and gas targets adjusted, due to project setbacks and fuel constraints—while coal, hydro, solar, and onshore wind fill near-term security needs.
This is not a reason to discount offshore wind; it is a signal to treat it as an “early-positioning” business (surveys, consents, partnerships, seabed/marine planning alignment), not just a construction business.
Between late 2024 and 2026, Vietnam introduced a tighter legal architecture for renewables and power markets—moving from a FIT-driven boom era into a more structured (and more negotiable) era.
Vietnam’s DPPA framework is now anchored in Decree 57/2025/ND-CP (dated March 3, 2025), which took effect immediately and repealed Decree 80/2024. The framework was further updated in 2026 through Decree 243/2026/ND-CP. The decree covers both “private line” direct trading and “national grid” mechanisms.
Under the grid-based mechanism, eligible renewable generators include wind, solar, or biomass projects ≥10 MW that connect to the national system and participate in the competitive wholesale electricity market. Eligible large customers are connected at 22 kV or higher (including EV-charging businesses meeting the decree’s definition), and there are also “zone/cluster” retail models where authorised retail units can sign term contracts with generators.
The practical investor takeaway: DPPA is no longer hypothetical. But the commercial viability of each DPPA deal will depend on wholesale market participation mechanics, “minimum take” or qualification thresholds (which can be linked to market operation rules), and how risk is allocated through contracts.
Vietnam also issued Decree 58/2025/ND-CP detailing renewable and “new energy” development and replacing the earlier rooftop solar decree (Decree 135/2024) as of March 3, 2025. The framework was further updated in 2026 through Decree 243/2026/ND-CP.
For offshore wind, Decree 58(as amended by Decree 243/2026/ND-CP) is highly specific and conservative in ways foreign investors must plan around:
For rooftop solar, Vietnam’s earlier “self-production/self-consumption” policy was launched via Decree 135/2024 (Oct 2024). It allowed broad participation (including households and industrial parks), capped typical household systems under 100 kW, and allowed selling up to 20% of installed capacity to the grid, with licensing/planning triggers for large systems (e.g., ≥1,000 kW aiming to sell to the grid).
Decree 58 then superseded Decree 135 from March 3, 2025—so current project structuring should treat Decree 58 as controlling, especially for compliance and contract terms.
A major bankability point for foreign sponsors is licensing clarity. Under Decree 61/2025/ND-CP (implementing the Electricity Law’s licensing provisions), the term of an electricity operation license is 20 years for generation and transmission, and 10 years for distribution/wholesale/retail.
For investors, this matters directly for financing tenor alignment and for acquisition due diligence (license validity, renewal conditions, and transfer/variation requirements).
Vietnam’s current approach uses official generation price brackets (ceilings) that guide negotiations rather than guaranteeing one fixed subsidised rate for all qualifying projects.
| Energy Type | Plant Type | North(VND/kWh) | Central(VND/kWh) | South(VND/kWh) | Notes |
| Solar | Ground-mounted (no storage) | 1,382.70 | 1,107.10 | 1.012.00 | Max price, excl. VAT |
| Solar | Floating (no storage) | 1,685.80 | 1,336.10 | 1,228.20 | Max price, excl. VAT |
| Solar | Solar + storage | - | - | - | Storage assumptions: ≥10% capacity, 2h discharge, 5% charging share |
| Wind | Onshore | 1,959.40 | 1,807.40 | 1,840.30 | Max price, excl. VAT |
| Wind | Nearshore | 1,987.40 | 1,987.40 | 1,987.40 | Nationwide cap, excl. VAT |
For solar in 2025, Decision 988/QD-BCT sets maximum prices (excluding VAT) by region and plant type. For example, ground-mounted solar without storage is capped at 1,382.7 VND/kWh (North), 1,107.1 (Central), 1,012.0 (South); floating solar without storage is capped at 1,685.8 / 1,336.1 / 1,228.2 VND/kWh (North/Central/South).
The same decision specifies storage parameters used in calculating the cap for solar-plus-storage: minimum storage capacity 10% of plant capacity, 2-hour storage/discharge time, and charging energy share of 5% of solar output.
For wind in 2025, Decision 1508/QD-BCT caps onshore wind at 1,959.4 VND/kWh (North), 1,807.4 (Central), 1,840.3 (South); nearshore wind is capped at 1,987.4 VND/kWh nationwide (excluding VAT).
For commercial investors, this has two implications: (1) pricing is more market-linked and negotiation-driven; (2) project competitiveness (resource quality, grid position, capex discipline, ability to add value through storage) becomes the main determinant of returns.
Vietnam’s opportunity set is broader than “build a wind farm.” The most actionable paths tend to fall into a few segments with distinct risk profiles.
Utility-scale solar and wind remain investable, but the winning strategy has shifted from “race to COD for FIT” to “win on fundamentals.” Under price brackets, bankability tends to favor (a) strong resource regions, (b) grid-access realism, and (c) sponsors who can manage curtailment and dispatch risk through design choices (including storage where economics work) and conservative underwriting.
Corporate offtake is becoming an important link between renewable energy investment and Vietnam’s growing demand for cleaner power. Vietnam’s DPPA framework, established under Decree 57/2025/ND-CP and updated through subsequent amendments in 2026, allows eligible large power users to purchase renewable electricity from generators through private connection lines or the grid-based mechanism. This creates additional pathways for renewable energy procurement beyond traditional PPA structures.
Rooftop solar and C&I solutions (often bundled with energy management) can be compelling where the customer’s load profile supports self-consumption economics. However, investors must structure projects tightly around the “self-consumption first” principle and the rules governing surplus sales to the grid (and related licensing/planning triggers).
Transitional renewable projects continue to move through commercialisation and pricing processes. As of February 2025, 81 out of 85 transitional renewable projects, representing approximately 4,597.86 MW, had submitted documents for electricity price negotiations. The number of projects completing commercial operation procedures increased to 30 projects or plant parts, with a combined capacity of approximately 1,631.85 MW.
For secondary-market investors, these assets can be attractive—but only with disciplined diligence on tariff status, payment mechanics, compliance, and dispute history.
Finally, offshore wind is a “position now, build later” market. Decree 58 provides more predictability on incentives, area use, surveys, bidder selection, and the role of state and security institutions—but it also formalizes multi-ministry consent requirements and complex eligibility rules. That means early-stage success often looks like: securing survey rights, building a credible consortium (technical + financial + local alignment), and designing a development roadmap that can survive a multi-year approval timeline.
A workable market-entry model in Vietnam usually starts with choosing the right “vehicle” and approvals path—then building a development pipeline that matches Vietnam’s planning and licensing logic.
Foreign investors establishing operations in Vietnam commonly require an Investment Registration Certificate (IRC) for the investment project and an Enterprise Registration Certificate (ERC) for the local entity, although the exact process depends on the project structure and applicable regulations. Licensing timelines vary significantly based on project complexity, location, sector requirements and additional approvals.
From a practical execution standpoint, investors tend to succeed when they treat Vietnam as a sequenced approvals market:
First, align the project with planning and location logic. In Vietnam, land and power planning integration is not a back-office detail; it is what determines whether later licenses and grid connection are feasible. This is even more important after the Land Law’s earlier entry into force (moved forward to Aug 1, 2024), which accelerated a wave of new implementing guidance for land procedures and valuation.
Second, structure the revenue model around the correct regime: traditional PPA, DPPA (private line or grid-based), rooftop self-consumption (with limited surplus sales), or offshore wind bidding. Misclassifying the model early often leads to delays later.
Third, plan licensing and compliance around the actual operating activity. Generation and transmission licenses can run up to 20 years, while distribution/retail activities typically run 10 years, so financing and shareholder agreements should match the regulatory tenor.
Fourth, run “Vietnam-style” diligence. Beyond technical feasibility, foreign investors should stress-test: (a) grid connection risk and curtailment history, (b) tariff and payment track record, (c) land status and compensation/resettlement exposure, and (d) any security-related consent requirements (especially for offshore wind).
For investors seeking an alternative to greenfield development, acquisition or partnership with operating assets or late-stage projects can provide a more immediate route into the market. However, foreign investors still need to assess market-access conditions, land and security requirements, transaction approvals and project-specific transfer restrictions before proceeding.
Vietnam’s renewable market is attractive precisely because it is transitioning from a subsidy-led surge to a rules-and-market era. That transition creates opportunity—but also headline risks that investors must price correctly.
The most visible risk in 2025 was policy and payment uncertainty for some legacy FIT-era projects. Reuters reported investor petitions warning that retroactive changes and unilateral payment adjustments could jeopardize billions of dollars of renewable investments and create loan-default risks, including cases where EVN subsidiaries were described as applying provisional tariffs and withholding payments.
If you are buying operating assets, this is the diligence question: “What is the project’s tariff entitlement and compliance status, and what is the realistic payment pathway in the current environment?”
Foreign investor sentiment has also been affected by project delays and regulatory friction. Reuters reported that Enel prepared to exit Vietnam amid delays and infrastructure challenges, following other withdrawals by Equinor and Orsted.
The lesson is not “don’t invest.” It is that Vietnam rewards investors who can execute through administrative complexity, localize development capacity, and structure projects around the current (not historical) pricing and contracting rules.
Curtailment remains a structural risk, especially for solar-heavy regions and for projects built ahead of grid reinforcement. Industry commentary has flagged curtailment as a bankability issue for years; it still matters in 2026.
Mitigation typically comes from a combination of site selection, realistic grid studies, conservative base-case dispatch assumptions, contractual risk allocation, and (where feasible) storage or demand-shaping solutions.
Finally, regulatory sophistication is rising—especially around offshore wind governance. Decree 58 formalizes multi-ministry consents, marine area constraints, and rules for investor selection and ceiling prices in bidding documents. Investors should treat compliance and stakeholder alignment as a core workstream from day one, not something to “solve later.”
Vietnam’s renewable energy market is moving into a more structured phase. The revised PDP8, DPPA framework and updated rules for solar, wind and electricity pricing are creating clearer routes for investment. At the same time, grid capacity, project approvals, land requirements and commercial viability remain central to investment decisions.
For foreign investors, success will depend on selecting the right entry route, understanding the regulatory requirements and assessing project risks early. Opportunities span utility-scale solar and wind, corporate power procurement, rooftop solar, project acquisitions and longer-term offshore wind development.
Ascentium supports businesses entering and operating in Vietnam with market entry, entity structuring, regulatory compliance and ongoing corporate services. Our local and cross-border teams help investors manage the practical requirements of establishing and growing their operations in Vietnam.