Mary Meeker's Top Mobile Internet Trends

Mary Meeker, who has previously led mobile predictions publishing at Morgan Stanley, recently joined Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers in late 2010.  Ms. Meeker’s work has largely been considered the lead analyst to assess the mobile market and bring to light several upcoming trends.  She has a tremendous track record for being correct in her assessments. 

Yesterday, Mary and team at KPCB released an update to the Mobile Internet Report, originally published in mid-2009.  The report, Top Mobile Internet Trends, discusses the convergence of social, mobile, local, and gaming to foretell an explosive five-year window in mobile on the horizon. 

I’ve pulled out key elements—it’s extremely interesting to see how her original projections made in 2009 are actually being outpaced:
 

• Ms. Meeker originally predicted that access to the Internet made by mobile devices would overtake access via desktop/notebook/laptop in 2013 (‘mobile overtakes desktop’).  That inflection point was actually attained in Q4 2010.
• The largest adoption and growth opportunities globally exist in China (no surprise at 29% y/y growth), followed by Russia (somewhat of a surprise—less users; however, a stunning 31% y/y growth).
• Social networking (including info sharing, gaming, and social commerce) considered primary element for adoption rate for mobile.
• Troika of success elements considered to be a MUST for marketers employing mobile strategies: convergence of social, mobile, and local (cannot overstate the importance of “local” this year).
• How are people spending time within mobile?

                  47%: maps, games, social networking, utilities (huge; new)

                  12%: web/web apps (huge; new)

                  32%: telephony, Skype, messaging (IM’ing)

                  9%: mail

• Global mobile data traffic will grow 26 times over the next 5 years.
• OS growth from Q4, 2009 to Q4, 2010:

                  Google: 615%

                  Apple: 86%

                  RIM: 36%

                  Nokia: 30%