The Future of Mobile App Development

ABI Research recently released a comprehensive report on Mobile Application Storefronts that detailed the state of the industry, as well as where the market is heading in the next few years.  The report posited that mobile applications will continue to grow exponentially, rising to a peak in 2013, at which point new demand channels would be realized—primarily the shift toward Mobile Web. 

Said senior analyst Mark Beccue, “App stores aren’t going away: following the 2013 peak in demand, the number of downloads in 2015 will have decreased only seven or eight percent.  But as our use of the mobile Internet evolves, demand will increasingly shift elsewhere.”

Consumers downloaded 2.4 billion applications last year, and the download rate has been on an acceleration path which will continue over the next few years, peaking at just under 7 billion (in 2013).

Beccue states that as the mobile web matures, allowing for a convergence in cell phone and application ubiquity, ever-faster, improving standards/technologies, and consumer expectations driving industry growth, we will see a migration from mobile app development back to mobile web development.

While I agree with the general, speculated shift, I also feel like there’s not going to be a yin/yang relationship between mobile app dev. and mobile web dev.—given the rapid pace of the market, I don’t think we know yet how exactly the industry will mature.